Look, before we get stuck into the issue of the upcoming Victorian election on 28 November, we know the sitting government made a mess of its mandate.
It’s spent wildly on major projects that might have been brilliant but without the care and consideration they deserved.
The Suburban Rail Loop was cooked up on the equivalent of a napkin and foisted onto the agencies to deliver it. A big, missed opportunity to deliver good transport to areas crying out for it.
We know. We know.
But the thing is that on environmental and sustainability issues, the last time the Libs and Nats ran Victoria they made just as big a mess of it.
Let the market run, they said. Let developers build what they like. Remove building codes that dictate minimum sizes or the need to have windows in the bedroom. The result was those 8000 “shitty little apartments” you’ve heard about that no one wanted to buy or live in. Melbourne’s beautiful brand treated as trash.
And then there were the environmental policy retractions. The Greener Government Buildings Program was the worst. A great energy saving program cancelled for no better reason than it supported renewables…and energy efficiency.
That was an aeon ago.
But does that give you a hint of why we fear what a change of government, as expected, will do in Victoria? And why the cards this industry plays now must be especially astute?
The current Libs/Nats leadership gives us little cause for hope that the energy transition will continue apace, if you listen to the rhetoric. What’s interesting is that it looks like market forces are winning, for the renewables side, but that the Opposition hopes to win votes by calling it for gas and winding back clean energy progress.
Nationally, the conservative pollies started taking their cue on the environment quick sticks from One Nation, the minute Barnaby Joyce rolled into the party.
It was: dump net zero, keep the coal fires burning, and bring in nuclear. Emotional, simplistic slogans tuned to pick up the dying dregs of the Trump agenda (which brilliant mags such as The New Yorker are already referring to in the past tense).
The Coalition policies on gas and electrification indeed look alarming.
See our article earlier this week on the dangers of gas in commercial kitchens and what the Green Building Council of Australia said about the prospect of the rollback on electrification mooted by Victorian the Coalition should they win power, as expected.
It’s part of its promised retraction of the “Gas Substitution Roadmap” and justified on the basis of consumer “choice”.
This is marketing speak.
It’s the kind of choice consumers get when you offer them an ultra cheap ebike, only to find it has the kind of battery that can set your house on fire.
Choice implies being fully informed.
Hopefully, by now, buyers who end up in the sticks probably know full well they will face extraordinarily expensive commutes, right?
But is it choice if they can afford nothing else?
And so on.
Gas ban to be reversed
The Coalition has already said it will cancel the gas ban for new housing promised for early next year under Labor’s plan and possibly wind back provisions around appliances in rental properties that landlords must replace failed gas appliances with electric.
It would mean that renters, who have no say in the equipment installed, would be forced to pay for expensive and rising gas prices.
This worries groups such as Environment Victoria. It says it will be people who can least afford it who will be forced to pay for higher energy prices.
Climate campaign manager Joy Toose says the Coalition’s plans are to change the laws to slow down electrification of homes and it’s these that are the most concerning.
“People will pay higher power bills and gas prices are going up. Relying on gas is the most expensive way to do things.”
The prospect to remove the appliance provisions has already led to uncertainty in the industry, which was preparing for an uptick in business, she says.
An even bigger problem is that as people continue to leave the gas networks, those left behind will likely be forced to pay higher infrastructure charges because there will be fewer people with which to share the burden.
However, Toose said it was still unclear which parts of the gas substitution road map the Coalition wanted to roll back.
And there’s more that’s left unclarified.
For instance, One Nation, which is now more or less running the political agenda for the Coalition wants to keep the Yallourn andLoy Yang A coal fired power plants in the Latrobe Valley open beyond their slated closing dates in 2028 and 2035 (and bring in nuclear, would you believe?)
Loy Yang’s owner AGL has said nope – that would would increase operating costs and the risk of unplanned outages, which experts say will backfire on consumer bills.
The Coalition is also critical of EnergyAustralia’s plans to close the Yallourn power plant by 2028 – but hasn’t specifically said it will oppose the closure.
What it has said is that if it wins government there would be “greater reliance on gas generation, the creation of ‘urban solar parks’ (again, interesting) and the cancellation of the controversial VNI West power cable, which would stifle more renewable power generation.
While it wants to scrap strict legislated renewable energy targets, the Coalition has admitted that renewables will be the biggest source of Victoria’s energy in the future.
So, a weird mix of ideological commitment to gas and a realisation that the future is clean energy, thanks to market forces, perhaps, but at the same time putting a brake on the market forces leading to clean energy.
The Libs/Nats could be reading the tea leaves
Andrew Forrest’s Squadron Energy this week revealed that in western Victoria “the homeland of influential protest group Farmers Fightback, 60.3 per cent of people still support local wind projects” but that small protest groups could swing the mood against a project.
Which may be the most interesting thread to pull together here: The Libs/Nats know that clean energy is the future, but their political trick is to tug on the strings that clever marketers have pinned on the disillusioned angry contingent that just wants change.
It’s a bob each way. But that writing on the wall is getting clearer and stronger.
