Ambition is admirable. But engineering limits, ageing assets, fragmented regulation, skills shortages and system-level risk will shape what buildings can realistically deliver in 2026 – and how quickly. Here are the trends ARBS attendees will be debating on the show floor and in seminar rooms in May.
1. Electrification: Ambition meets engineering limits
“Getting off gas” is now infrastructural, not ideological. But most Australian commercial buildings were never designed for all-electric operation, leaving many engineering teams scratching their collective heads.
Cromwell Property Group’s McKell Building, Sydney’s fully electrified CBD office tower, shows why replacing the gas boilers is not a simple swap. Several technology pathways were explored, and NABERS impacts modelled, before the team settled on a solution balancing efficiency, cost and tenant continuity.
The biggest lesson? End-of-life equipment is the ideal trigger for electrification, but success depends on the engineering ingenuity and the right tech at the right time.
2. Indoor environment quality: Ambition meets risk
Indoor environment quality is more than a just a wellness extra. It is fast becoming a risk issue.
Two recent developments point to the direction of travel. In the first-of-its-kind State of Indoor Air in Australia 2025 report, IAQ is not adequately addressed in building codes or health strategies, and fewer than 0.03 per cent of buildings have ever been assessed for indoor air pollutants.
Meanwhile, the Burnet Institute’s Pathway to Clean Indoor Air in Victoria program, backed by the Victorian government, is systematically evaluating interventions such as HEPA filtration, ventilation upgrades, and sensor?based air monitoring with a view to long-term reform.
The takeaway? Expect CO?, particulates, humidity and filtration to rapidly move onto the radar of boards and investors, not just building management teams.
3. Refrigerants: Ambition meets reality
Australia has more than 62 million refrigerant-dependent devices in operation, with systems typically replaced only every 15–20 years. The choices made today, therefore, will shape emissions and financial exposure, and compliance risk, well into the 2040s.
Australia’s Built Environment Sector Plan recognises the need to phase down emissions from hydrofluorocarbons used in refrigeration, air conditioning and some hot water systems. The challenge is alignment between refrigerant policy, procurement decisions and design standards.
Addressing these impacts will require close collaboration between building owners, designers and manufacturers to develop, specify and scale solutions that balance climate objectives with safety, performance, skills availability and cost.
4. Regulation: Ambition meets fragmentation
The defining regulatory challenge in 2026 is not just more regulation. It’s messier regulation.
National frameworks are tightening, but adoption is uneven. While the National Construction Code 2022 raised energy efficiency and performance standards, implementation timelines and transitional rules continue to vary across states.
Victoria and NSW have also introduced their own building performance and electrification policies, often moving faster than national settings. The result is a widening gap between policy intent and delivery capability, (and a growing risk for anyone designing to yesterday’s rules rather than tomorrow’s expectations).
5. Energy efficiency: Ambition meets coordination
Most buildings have already captured the easy efficiency gains. The next phase is coordination. During the January 2026 heatwave, Australia’s electricity grid absorbed record demand without widespread disruption, with solar supplying most daytime electricity. Now we need to do this every day.
The new Green Star Time of Energy Use Leadership Challenge encourages building owners to think not only about how much energy buildings use, but when they use it – a systems challenge building services must now be designed to meet.
6. Skills: Ambition meets capacity
Australia’s HVAC and building services workforce is under strain. We are losing roughly 5 per cent of its qualified air-conditioning and refrigeration technicians each year, while a fraction of that number come through training pipelines.
Meanwhile, systems are becoming more complex. Electrification, advanced controls, low-GWP refrigerants and tighter performance standards all demand higher levels of technical expertise – and that makes skills shortages a material risk to building performance and compliance.
7. AI: Ambition meets governance
AI is already in the plant room, not as a sci-fi brain, but as software that detects faults, predicts failures and nudges set points. As Australia tightens expectations on responsible AI – including designated accountability and use-case risk controls – all building owners will face the same question. When algorithms influence comfort, cost and compliance, who carries the ultimate responsibility? Technology can support judgement, but it can’t replace it.
How these trends unfold – and how the tensions between ambition and real-world application are resolved – will be explored at ARBS from 5-7 May in Melbourne.
