Gas burning is down – by a lot. So what’s AEMO doing, with its spruiking of more gas?

The rate at which we burn fossil gas in eastern Australia continues to fall. The recent annual report by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) reveals that in 2023 the amount of gas used in our homes and other buildings, in industry, and to make electricity, fell by a rather massive 14 per cent in a single year.

Compared with 2022, gas demand fell in every state and in every sector of the economy.

Peak gas burning was in 2012

This continues the trend of falling gas demand that has persisted since the peak gas burning year of 2012, with annual gas use falling by around 30 per cent over the 11 years since.

Remarkably, nearly half of this fall occurred in just the past year. (See my article of last year for a detailed description of longer-term trends.)

Saving by not burning

Why is the demand for gas, if not yet falling over a cliff, nevertheless sliding down a steep off-ramp?

Eastern Australian gas is simply way too expensive to burn.

Making electricity with far cheaper wind, solar and energy storage is growing, meaning the use of gas in that sector is reduced to the bare minimum.

Large industries have closed or scaled back operations due to the crippling price of gas, and more may do so.

Households are switching off gas and switching to cleaner, healthier, safer and cheaper electric options. These include heating our homes with reverse cycle airconditioners, heating our water with heat pumps and preparing meals with induction cooktops.

Reducing gas demand means no winter shortfall

Consumer-side actions have an enormous role to play in ensuring future electricity supplies

In its report, AEMO reveals how the traditional gas source of the Bass Strait (discovered 59 years ago) is on its last legs. AEMO then warns that if we experience a freak cold weather snap (this could indeed happen, as our climate breaks down) and if there are any upsets in the gas supply system, they can’t guarantee that peak winter gas demand can be reliably met,  if we continue to burn gas at the wasteful pace we always have.

Fortunately, AEMO’s own data shows that by a large margin, we’re not burning gas at the pace we always have.

Incredibly, AEMO forecasts increasing gas demand and calls for fossil expansion

Although AEMO’s own data reported that gas demand fell by a massive 14 per cent over the last year, AEMO sees this as exceptional and forecasts that over the next five years gas demand will actually… go back up!  (Unbelievable yes, but you read that right!)

For many years AEMO has relentlessly called for expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure, while denying that gas demand would ever fall and downplaying the enormous opportunity we have to switch off gas, improve economic outcomes, and move to cleaner and safer electric options.

When it comes to gas, AEMO ignores the potential for demand-side actions. This contrasts with AEMO’s stewardship of the electricity grid, where it now recognises that demand or consumer-side actions have an enormous role to play in ensuring future electricity supplies.

Real world results

Meanwhile in the real world of major industry, large gas consumers threaten further plant closures because of high domestic gas prices.

Throughout our electricity grid, wind, solar, and energy storage continues to be built, ensuring the role of gas in this sector remains small.

And in the little real world of my home consulting business, I routinely help clients to decommission some of the most inefficient ducted gas heating systems you could ever imagine, and instead learning how to comfortably heat with the reverse cycle airconditioners they already have in their homes, but have never seriously used for heating. The gas industry and some others talk about how hard it is to reduce gas use at home, but in some cases it is as simple as, for the first time, finding the HEAT button on the airconditioner.

The bad news – more gas for export

On a sad closing note, I must point out that with more than 80 per cent of the gas produced in Australia being exported, and because Australian federal, state, and territory governments continue to freely approve the expansion of new fossil gas extraction and infrastructure, any gas we can keep from burning here in Australia is simply seen by the gas companies as xan opportunity to export even more.

So at the same time as we are banishing fossil gas from our homes and other buildings, businesses and industries, we need to pressure governments to wake up to the climate emergency and stop supporting the expansion of fossil fuels.

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