Waste generation is rising, and circular economy action is the answer

In spite of commitments from governments and lots of nicely worded reports, waste generation (total) and waste generation per person continue to grow, driving up greenhouse gas emissions, costs to business and households, while accelerating landfill consumption rates.

The National Waste Action Plan, signed by all levels of government, has specific targets. These include, by 2030:

• 10 per cent reduction in per capita waste generation
• 80 per cent resource recovery across all streams
• 50 per cent reduction in organics to landfill

We are failing on all of them, but in this article, I want to look at the data on per capita waste generation covered by the National Waste and Resource Recovery Reports, with the most recent having been updated in December 2024.

In short, per capita waste generation is growing, not falling. It is going the wrong way. It requires much stronger interventions by governments.

Waste generation is very hard to shift. Why?

Because historically, waste generation grows with economic growth. There are more of us, consuming more things. Our economy is currently built to consume resources. More consumption means a bigger economy and more “wealth”. A bigger pie to share around. Or so the theory goes.

National trend in per capita waste generation (core waste)

The growth rate in per capita waste generation is about 2 per cent per year. That means, to hit the national target, we would need to achieve a greater than 10 per cent reduction between now and 2030. Every year that goes by makes the task harder.

The pattern at the state level is much the same, with a few bits of curious data.

State trends in per capita waste generation kilograms per person

Only two states (Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory) show a supposed decrease in per capita waste generation, but even that, I think, is a bit dodgy.

QLD waste generation fell from 11.3 to 10.6 megatonne despite the fact that its population grew from 4.9 million to 5.3 million from 2017 to 2021. I suspect the fall in waste generation is a result of better reporting of waste data, with more landfills installing weighbridges and compulsory reporting.

ACT reports a fall from 2.45 kilograms per person to 2.32kg/pp, but a lot of ACT waste is transported from the territory to NSW for landfilling. This has been growing in recent years. (Interstate movement of waste is the best way to avoid paying the landfill taxes, and the governments have still not fully fixed this loophole.)

(If QLD or ACT have data to show I am wrong, I would certainly welcome it.)

The key point is that waste generation per capita (and total waste generation) continues to rise, not fall.

Short of a recession, which drives down economic activity (with constant population), there have historically been few levers to reduce waste generation.

The key is to decouple economic activity from waste generation in the first place. This is the holy grail of waste management. It allows markets and economies to continue to grow, but in doing so, not create more waste.

Thankfully circular economy (CE) has emerged as an all-encompassing mechanism focused on decoupling economic activity from waste generation. It prioritises waste avoidance, reforming supply chains, redesigning products, reuse and other actions, to reduce waste generation in the first place.

In our CE work at MRA, we see governments, businesses and communities increasingly embracing CE actions. But it is very early days. The economic and policy settings of the government are still not as supportive as they could or should be.

Here are a few examples of CE initiatives that MRA has worked on, which can reliably reduce per capita waste generation. These examples come from the length and breadth of the Australian economy. From airlines, hardware chains, local governments, to small businesses. From transporters to manufacturers.

1. Smart manufacturing – Designing out waste generation and improving the lifespan of products. We are working with lots of companies on upstream procurement reviews and downstream production processes to design out waste
2. Replacing single use materials with reusable:
   • pallet wrap. Low density polyethylene pallet wrap is recyclable, but a lot also goes to landfills. There are now reusable elasticised nets that perform the same function
   • reusable coffee cups vs single use (the material does not arise for either disposal or recycling)
3. Material and reuse exchanges – extending the lifespan of products in the economy, such that they don’t arise in the disposal or recycling supply chains. Everything from mobile phones to power tools and cars can find a second use
4. Food waste reduction programs, including:
   • national food waste strategy – to reduce supply chain food wastage (creation)
   • Love Food Hate Waste (NSW) – to educate consumers to reduce food wastage bin trim – food waste reduction in shopping centres
   • smart apps – to encourage restaurants, etc, to donate food so that it does not become part of the waste or recycling supply chain

To achieve the targets they set, governments will need to act much faster and with much more willingness to decouple economic activity from waste generation.

The examples I have given above are “no brainers”, but right now we are barely touching the sides. That is why per capita waste generation is still growing.

The new Federal Environment Minister, Murray Watt, has a national Circular Economy Ministerial Advisory Group chaired by John Thwaites, with lots of eminent others to advise him. It was set up under the previous Minister.

It has given the minister some framework actions, but it needs to be driven harder at the actionable initiatives and funding level, if we are going to have any chance of reducing per capita waste generation.

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