Australia released its first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) on Monday. The document paints a realistic but stark picture of where we are heading – it is not light reading. Climate hazards and compound events will continue to escalate, and we will need all hands on deck to deal with the consequences. If anyone wants more evidence that we need to address the impacts of climate change, this is it. In the week following The Fifth Estate’s local government summit, Imogen Jubb lays out the reality of what councils will need to deal with.
Frontline impacts
Local councils are one of the first responders to climate impacts and also hold the hand of the community through recovery, sometimes for years after an event. They have been laden with great responsibility in the face of climate change, but also have minimal resources to manage such unprecedented and increasingly recurring challenges.
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Extreme weather events can cause damage to local infrastructure and strain community vulnerability. Management of critical infrastructure, emergency services, and community assets that bear the brunt of climate impacts is part of the load. Supporting communities through these events is no longer an unusual occurrence, and councils can be dealing with multiple events simultaneously.
Compound events
Local governments and their communities face cascading and compound risks from multiple hazards. Climate projections indicate intensifying heatwaves, flooding, drought and coastal erosion across Australian communities. Impacts include damage to roads, bridges and public buildings and threats to community health and safety.
There used to be decades between major events, but now many communities are starting to suffer from disaster fatigue. The Minister for Regional Development, Local Government and Territories, Kristy McBain, was the Mayor of Bega Valley Shire when the community faced nine declared natural disasters, culminating in the black summer bushfire that ended with a flood and then Covid immediately after.
Many councils have already responded to the climate challenge by adopting proactive strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to unavoidable climate impacts through risk assessments and adaptation plans. Local governments across Australia are mandated to consider risk in fulfilling their duties, and considering risks from climate is explicitly required by the Victorian and Western Australian local government acts.
However, there is currently no nationally consistent process for councils to undertake this work, and many councils lack resources for such comprehensive planning.
Local governments can use the NCRA release to initiate their own local climate risk assessment to better understand their exposure and that of their communities to the foreseeable costs and impacts, and amplify the call for adequate resourcing to deliver on the challenges ahead.
Financial pressure
This new landscape of extreme events is placing local governments under extraordinary financial pressure, as costs of impacts are rapidly increasing while revenue is not. This can be particularly acute for regional and remote councils where there is a small population from which to enable vast tracks of roads and dispersed infrastructure.
Councils need predictable and consistent funding to enable them to work more effectively in both reducing emissions and supporting their communities to prepare for and deal with disasters as they unfold. Much of the limited resourcing available to councils is based on competitive grants, where regional rural councils are at a disadvantage from the get-go, as they rarely have staff with time to even consider applying.
Australian households should not be paying for these clean-ups either. The Australia Institute is calling for a National Climate Disaster Fund to pay for the costs of response and recovery – funded by a carbon levy – and to prevent local residents, businesses and councils from footing the huge bill of disaster management.
Solutions
Local people, community groups and local governments have been leading the response to climate impacts – few are resourced to do this work, but many undertake it because there is an immediate need in front of them and they have skills to offer.
With better coordination and resourcing, this goodwill could turn into an army of capable, effective people delivering relief, protection, coordination and care across their communities.
The recently released Adapting Together report outlines more than 200 examples of councils showing leadership and taking action to address climate impacts. Effective solutions include upgrading infrastructure for extreme weather, developing early warning systems, creating green corridors for cooling, and implementing water-sensitive urban design.
The Australian Local Government Climate Review also outlines solutions already in place and opportunities for better collaboration between local, state and federal governments to support the national sector plans.
Degrees of difference
The NCRA has assessed climate risks and impacts in Australia at three scenarios of global heating: 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 3ºC above pre-industrial levels. Different scenarios will lead to vastly different outcomes and costs for communities.
The cost of extreme events is estimated to reach up to $40 billion a year in 2050, even under the 1.5 degree scenario. Hundreds of thousands of people will be exposed to sea level rise and many homes could become uninsurable.
Targets
A 2035 national target is expected to be announced in the coming days. A science aligned 2035 target is technically possible but challenging given we are already substantively at 1.5 degrees of warming. The national target provides an opportunity to show the world Australia’s capability, ambition and agency in addressing the challenge ahead and could lead to examples of successful integration of climate policy from the local to the international level.
Local CHAMPions
Local government contributions to the national target are not currently recognised, but there is a push for better processes for subnational commitments to count in international climate negotiations.
If Australian councils’ current targets were extrapolated nationally they would approach 30 per cent of the nationally determined contribution. The Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnership for Climate Action (CHAMP) is an international commitment to better integrate multilevel governance on climate. Australia has endorsed the CHAMP pledge but the government has not yet taken any measures to increase local government partnerships. This is another opportunity waiting to be explored.
The Brazil COP is fast approaching, and the cities and regions hub will provide an opportunity to learn from the expertise of local governments and communities around the work, but International negotiations seem a million miles away from the on ground reality that many local governments are facing with repeated disruption to daily life from drought, fire, flood, housing and health crisis all compounding.
Social disadvantage
Those already facing social inequality will be further stressed by climate impacts. Climate change puts all of us at risk, but some are more exposed than others. Extreme heat is a bigger killer than most other national disasters – but can fly under the radar. NCAR indicates that Sydney could face 440 per cent more heat related deaths under a 3 degree warming scenario.
Western Sydney councils, for example, due to a mix of geographical and social factors, are facing impacts significantly greater than some of their neighbouring communities.
The region is proactive in preparing for this situation, and the Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils has developed a Heat Resilience Program, which aims to minimise the impacts of heatwaves and help people respond in extreme events.
Collaboration
Prioritising the well-being of the community as a whole is a core tenet of local government. To meet this aim, local governments are also masters of collaboration and cooperation. For example, the heat resilience program involves not just councils, but universities, state departments, police, health agencies, community groups, social services, property councils and energy and water providers.
Councils are taking on (the often unresourced) role of facilitators and information providers across all the services that combine to meet a community’s needs.
Regional alliances of councils have formed in most states and territories to better advocate and action climate projects and programs, and provide a testing ground for solutions that can be delivered at scale and speed.
These groups will be able to see the relative merits and failings of policies and program implementation that state and federal governments will always struggle to see first hand. These regional partnerships should be well watched and supported by state and federal governments to identify policies and programs that can be replicated for great effect, both in terms of emissions reduction but also community co-benefit and cost savings in the long run.
Care
Care, compassion and connection to their communities are key elements of local council work. Staff often know the people they are supporting, and this work will always matter personally. But like much caring work, it should not be taken for granted. The coalescing impacts of social and environmental issues are taking a toll on all involved, and as the NCRA clearly demonstrates, the challenges are only going to continue to pile up.