NSW Opposition Leader Chris Minns and NSW Premier Dominic Perrotet

If this week’s polls are anything to go by, Chris Minn’s Labor Party is likely to scrape home with a narrow victory at Saturday’s New South Wales state election but will not be in a position to form a majority government. 

The most likely scenario is that Labor forms a minority government with the Greens. As in the 2022 federal election, the minor parties and independents are shaping up to play a much larger role, although on a state level cost of living pressures and social infrastructure are more front of mind than climate and political integrity concerns, which drove the success of the teal independents at a federal level. 

On Saturday, the big story will be about the minnows: Record numbers of NSW voters are eschewing the major parties – a Roy Morgan poll released Tuesday shows that a massive 32 per cent of voters will either vote for a minor party such as the Greens or for a teal independent. 

The poll shows the Labor Party ahead with 53.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote compared with the LNP Coalition’s 46.5 per cent. Chris Minns is seen as the “better premier “on 52 per cent over Premier Dominic Perrotet’s 48 per cent. The parties are neck in neck on the primary vote, with 34 per cent apiece. 

Which election outcome will be best for sustainability? 

Both parties are promising big things on the environment front, with substantial plans to expand the state’s renewable energy footprint and boost its emissions reduction target (Labor). But what about social sustainability? How are the parties offering to deal with the housing affordability crisis and what are they doing to improve public transport infrastructure? 

Environment and energy 

Liberal-National Coalition 

Under the current government’s Net Zero plan, NSW will cut its emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 and 70 per cent by 2035. The state will achieve this with policies such as transitioning its 8000 fossil fuel powered bus fleet to zero emissions technology and its plan to have EVs account for 50 per cent of all new car sales by 2030. 

The Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap will lay out a pathway to replace the state’s existing coal fired power stations with its five planned Renewable Energy Zones. This will be achieved under the Renewable Energy Roadmap will seek to draw $32 million in private investment to roll out 12 GW of renewable energy and 2 GW of storage by 2030. 

On the biodiversity front, the NSW Koala Strategy is targeting to double the number of koalas in the state by 2050 and conserving core habitat areas. Including by fencing along highways and training vets and nurses in wildlife care. 

Labor

Labor will shepherd the energy transition through a newly created state-owned corporation which will invest in the renewable energy required to transition the state away from coal-fired power generation. It has committed to fully ceasing asset privatisations via the creation of new legislation. 

Social policies

LNP

The LNP has introduced measures aimed at making housing more affordable for first-time buyers.  Since January it has allowed first-home buyers to choose between paying stamp duty or an annual payment plus a small land tax. 

If elected, the party plans to increase the threshold of the property price to which the discount applies from $1.5 million by $50,000 per year. The party also launched a home equity partnership scheme with essential workers where the government contributes up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home, or 30 per cent for an existing home in regional areas to attract more workers to live in them. 

The LNP will also upgrade almost 16,000 social housing properties over the next three years. 

The LNP has committed $600 million for early works on Stage 2 of the Parramatta Light Rail, and $1 billion for upgrades to Western Sydney roads. But besides these and delivering the under-construction stages of the Sydney Metro, it has not made any further public transport infrastructure commitments. 

Surprisingly for a conservative party, the LNP is going large on gambling, supporting a transition to cashless gaming in NSW pubs and clubs. Although this is perhaps more about stamping out money laundering than helping problem gamblers, but it should address both issues. 

Labor

Labor’s election pledges focus on improving the lot of renters, rather than homeowners. If elected, the party will appoint a Rental Commissioner who will identify barriers to increasing rental property supply and gather data on renting to input into future housing policies. 

The Rental Commissioner will create “reasonable grounds” for ending a lease to reduce unfair evictions, allow for the transfer of rental bonds from one property to another and make it easier for renters with pets to apply for property leases. 

Labor is also committing to Stage 2 of the Parramatta Light rail with a $200 million investment to finalise planning and procurement and will reverse the privatisation of bus services across parts of Sydney. The party would also deliver new locally constructed public transport fleet such as trains and ferries built in NSW. 

The verdict?

Overall, the major parties have pro-sustainability policies, from renewable energy to housing and public transport. However, both sides of politics have neglected urban planning and green infrastructure in their upcoming election pitches. While the Victorian government is seeking to amend its planning laws to mandate sustainable building practices, including measures to mitigate and manage urban heat in new developments and large redevelopments, there is no such action on the cards in NSW, which seems mainly to leave these issues to local governments. 

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