Amidst geopolitical turmoil and accelerating climate change impacts, it’s time to team up with our neighbours and take action to ensure that food security, energy security, and sustainable development are both a commercial opportunity and a diplomatic imperative, according to director of the Institute of Integrated Economics Research, Neil Greet.
A decade ago, when Engineers Australia called for a National Energy Security Strategy, engineer and climate adaptation consultant Neil Greet was one of the lead authors, and now an entire decade has been wasted in terms of action.
Since the paper was published in 2014, Australia’s governments have “wasted the time” when it comes to addressing the critical security issue of energy security and climate resilience, he tells The Fifth Estate.
Multifactor security – energy, climate and allies
Given the world we find ourselves in now in terms of geopolitical instability and the escalating impact of climate change, Greet believes we need to urgently mobilise, and not only on a national level.
A former Colonel in the Australian Army and current executive member of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG), Greet knows our defence leaders recognise the enormous threat posed by climate change. And the similarities between how we would act if we faced warfare and the way we must collectively get boots on the ground now are clear to him.
He explains that we need to establish who our allies are in our immediate region, muster resources, and apply ourselves with a sense of urgency and purpose.
These are some of the actions recommended in the ASLCG’s October 2024 Climate and Security Action Plan for Australia.
“Inadequate action by Australian governments has left our nation poorly prepared to face global warming’s consequences, and Australia remains ‘missing in action’ on climate security risks,” the plan states.
“We have many of the solutions at our disposal. We have the ability to act now, and we need to act now.
“The focus should be on the root causes of climate warming, principally eliminating emissions much faster than proposed, rather than primarily responding to the symptoms of floods, fires and related disasters.”
The plan orients around three priorities – protect, prevent and prepare, and takes a holistic view of how Australia achieves a safe operating space.
Why regional thinking matters
Greet observes that over the past decade, many of our neighbours have also struggled to achieve a transition, and Australia has some accountability for that.
“We sell coal to Vietnam, it’s one of our biggest customers, and we have worked to keep that going. There are interests that are more powerful (than climate action) behind that,” Greet says.
As a security strategy, this is not the way to proceed.
In orienting our thinking towards our region and becoming strong allies in the battle to save the global climate, Greet observes we can also start to address critical imperatives around food security, climate-driven migration and economic stability.
“The Indo-Pacific defence concept is our defining geopolitical strategy,” Greet says.
This is now not just about military security, but economic security and protecting human lives from climate impacts.
It makes commercial sense too
The Australian government and the leadership of ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) have already identified multiple benefits of economic and scientific collaboration to address the region’s big challenges.
In the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade report, Invested: Australia’s Southeast Asia Economic Strategy to 2040, there is a clear recognition of the potential for Australian expertise to become a significant export in the fields of engineering, renewable energy, cleantech, carbon markets and sustainable development.
Australian businesses Powerledger and Redflow are among those cited as successful case studies highlighting how alignment in terms of climate policy and the energy transition can translate into market share.
The report estimates energy efficiency projects in the region could see $580 billion in investment by 2030, and professional services in the areas of project engineering, design, construction and advisory services, and technology for SE Asia’s clean energy transition can tap into a market estimated to be worth up to US$10 billion ($A15.88 b) by 2030.
Conversely, Australia’s transition can benefit from ASEAN nations’ advanced manufacturing facilities and suppliers of solar panels, smart devices and other fundamentals.
For capital, the prospects are also good
“For Australian and regional investors, low-emissions and sustainable technology needs will drive enormous growth in investment opportunities, with around A$4 trillion in green investment expected by 2030, potentially rising to A$15 trillion by 2050,” the report states.
By contrast, Australian investments in the USA by the end of 2023 totalled A$1.2 trillion, dominated by investment in sectors including manufacturing, professional, scientific and technical services, finance and insurance.
So, the potential in our immediate region within the next five years is even greater than the level of opportunity in what has been, in recent years, the most significant destination for capital outflows.
The importance of Indonesia
Indonesia is one of the nations we should be building stronger cooperation and commercial ties with, Greet says. It’s our closest neighbour in ASEAN, with a growing population that is already experiencing the extreme impacts of climate change.
Sea level rise. Typhoons. Flooding. Escalating volcanic activity. Disruptions to the food supply. Rising tropical disease risks. Heat. Poverty. Community displacement.
Indonesia is also the fulcrum for security in our region, Greet says, as it lies between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. It effectively acts as a central gateway for SE Asia and the adjacent regions of Oceania, including our Polynesian and Melanesian neighbours such as Fiji, Samoa, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands.
We should be focusing efforts there, particularly as the nation grapples with the challenge of moving its capital to Nusantara in the highlands.
Greet points out that while the elevated site for the new capital city will offer protection from sea level rise, it will not be immune from all the other challenges associated with climate change.
Existential threats need all hands on deck
Some of these are challenges Australia faces also, with large numbers of communities established in floodplains and unable or unwilling to move. Meanwhile, our agricultural sector is also vulnerable to climate impacts, as the North Queensland floods showed last month.
The rise of Trump has also upped the ante. There will be ripple effects from the attacks on the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the “institutional base of knowledge around climate and energy,” Greet says.
“This will damage the world, and it is a difficulty we must manage.”
This is where aligning national and regional security with a lens for climate, energy and meeting the basic needs of populations becomes crucial.
“If we put the hard security head on, we need to understand, how will the world change with violent swings in geopolitics?”
Climate will also change things. In Indonesia, for example, so many parts of the community are on the coast, even small sea level rises have an impact.
The fishing industry, for example, which feeds 300 million people in the region, is already being affected. Land for crops is being affected by both sea level rise and changes to weather patterns, including monsoons and droughts.
What’s needed is will
If we ask, “can we make a difference to our own security and to regional security?” Greet believes the answer is yes. But it takes will. The population needs to care about our region and about climate, so the politicians will also.
There are also clear choices in the upcoming election. The incumbent ALP Government plans to host COP 31 and use it to put the spotlight on climate issues in our part of the Pacific and the SE Asia region. The Dutton pledge is if the Coalition is elected, we won’t host COP at all.
The will to act
As the original architect of public economics, Keynes said, a government can afford to do anything in the budget if it wants to.
For example, instead of Australia regarding China’s investments in climate adaptation and mitigation for some of our neighbours in the Pacific as a threat, Greet believes we could become more effective at deploying our own “soft power” to build alliances and progress the energy and climate transition.
“We can afford (for example) to offer assistance and improve climate adaptation in Indonesia,” Greet says.
“There’s an ideological statement around, ‘charity begins at home.’ But the full quote from Charles Dickens then goes on to say, ‘but justice lives next door.’”