CBD are the usual focus of attention for jobs and economic activity. But South East Queensland challenges a lot of the thinking in Sydney or Melbourne.
Do people move to southeast Queensland for the weather, the property market, or because it’s where there’s work available? This is one of the questions that occupies the team at Gold Coast-based consultancy, Urban Economics.
According to managing director Kerrianne Meulman and associate director Joshua Binkley, the constant population growth is most likely being driven by economic opportunities, rather than the search for a lifestyle property.
The job market is thriving. However, Binkley tells The Fifth Estate, Census data shows roughly 90 per cent of jobs are not in the CBDS of Brisbane, the Gold Coast or the Sunshine Coast. Most people work out in the suburbs, with social infrastructure including education and healthcare, major providers of employment.
Understanding travel patterns is important for planning for the region’s growth. Binkley recently mapped the commuting data for the SEQ region, using a format that displays like a Spirograph to illustrate the primary flows of people between home and workplaces.
One of the things this revealed was that people on the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast have generally low levels of commuting outside those urban areas for work.
The pressure points in Moreton Bay
City of Moreton Bay, just north of Brisbane, is one of the hotspots for development. The local council estimates it attracts an average of 240 new residents every week, and the population of just over 500,000 is expected to grow to 792,700 by 2046.
The council is currently working on revising its planning to accommodate the additional people.
One of the solutions will be the “missing middle”, which Meulman terms “gentle density”. Infill developments will also be required, she says.
The traditional homes in the Moreton Bay area have been detached housing on relatively large blocks – think classic Queenslander. The new density will see more townhouses and triplex developments, increasing the dwelling yield per hectare.
The Regional SEQ Plan produced by the Queensland state government addresses the residential development needs and also transport, education, services and jobs.
“Ensuring the mix (of housing) is critical,” Meulman says.
The region is also being hit with the familiar challenges around the price of construction materials and labour.
“This is making it challenging for developers to deliver housing at a price point that future residents can afford.”
Healthy market and more to come
Nonetheless, the flow of investment into property in the region is “tracking relatively steadily.” Increases in first home buyer schemes are also supporting the sector, and overall, there has been an increase in the value of lending for property.
By 2041, the estimate is that SEQ will need to have delivered 125,000 new dwellings and will also need to attract people to fill an estimated 85,000 new jobs.
Moreton Bay, Logan and Ipswich will “bear the brunt” of most of this development, Meulman says.
This northwest corridor features multiple activity centres providing employment, retail, education and healthcare, so a diverse choice of housing will be complementary to this ongoing economic growth.
“We also need to think about climate, sustainability and affordability,” Meulman says.
How people will get to their jobs is also a major consideration
Binkley says that the Brisbane CBD, for example, is evolving beyond being primarily about commerce and knowledge economy roles. It is becoming an entertainment and lifestyle district; a trend he expects the Olympics to accelerate.
Suburban employment, meanwhile, continues to grow and diversify. From tradies and teachers through to health hubs and social services, the suburbs of SEQ are “key drivers of employment.”
Public transport is part of the solution to ensuring congestion does not detract from the quality of life.
Investing in connecting the suburbs
The state government recently announced there will be an investment in connecting the Sunshine Coast to the heavy rail network. This currently goes somewhat inland of the coast after leaving Brisbane, leaving the Sunshine Coast with only the Bruce Highway as a major connector to the southern part of SEQ.
Meanwhile on the Gold Coast, the light rail has lived up to the hype, providing a significant share of commuter trips within the Gold Coast urban strip.
When the state government brought in 50 cent public transport fares, there was also an uplift in trips, Binkley says. This was however largely driven by tourists using public transport, rather than a spike in commuter trips using the heavy rail between Gold Coast and Brisbane for work trips.
Since the “spirograph” was published by advocacy network Suburban Futures, it has had almost 20,000 impressions on social media.
Road traffic headed north from Southport remains heavy during peak commute times, he says.
For the Sunshine Coast, also a city that comprises multiple urban centres along a relatively narrow strip of coastline, rather than invest in light rail the likelihood is it will adopt a Brisbane-style metro system based on buses.
As the Games draw closer, investments in connecting communities are likely to be a greater priority.
As it is, there is major interest in the commuting habits of the region.
Meulman says that since the “spirograph” was published by advocacy network Suburban Futures, it has had almost 20,000 impressions on social media.
It’s been of interest to transport engineers, planners, government and local government.
She’s had feedback saying it “shows something we thought we knew but need to understand better.”
“People are living, working, playing, learning and recreating within suburban locations. We live in communities,” Meulman says.
“We need our city centres, but in reality, most of us live in outer suburban areas, and we need investment in those areas.”