LETTER FROM THE EDITOR: On 1 December, our signature Tomorrowland event will be a time of incredible excitement and always a growth opportunity for everyone involved, as we soak up the thinking from some of Australia’s best analysts and creatives.
There is so much to learn and to plan for when you look at the big-ticket items that will define our future – buildings, construction, materials, decarbonisation – and how to build great prosperous communities.
Personally, I’ve also been increasingly fascinated by the geo-political tensions underway right now. For their own sake, of course, but also for the fact that they will have a huge impact on our transition to a low carbon, sustainable future.
Greenhouse gas emissions are a global problem; solving them needs massive co-operation.
But in fact, the world is fracturing.
At Tomorrowland we will start with a big global picture look at what’s likely to unfold as the world shifts on its axis. Not the least because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but now the US freeze on China. Will Australia be forced to follow suit?
One of speakers to help you unpack the likely scenarios will be James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at UTS, and a leading expert on China and the Chinese economy.
He will be in conversation with Geoff Winestock, editorial writer at the Sydney Morning Herald, former senior editor at The Australian Financial Review and a former correspondent in Moscow and editor-in-chief of The Moscow Times – something that’s earned Geoff a place on Russian president Vladimir Putin’s blacklist.
In our pre-event briefing on Monday, the picture became a lot more complex. For instance, if you thought the political chill winds between Australia and China were affecting trade, you’d be mostly wrong!
As James put it: while China has shut off our coal exports, “more than 90 per cent of our of our booming lithium exports, and exports of lithium concentrate now go to China.
“So this idea that we can readily decouple from China, it’s just not consistent with where things are headed in the sustainability space.
“Now, at the same time, there’s the geopolitics as well. I think there’s some really major significant action taking place in the US on basically the economic containment of China.
“I think we’re firmly in that phase now. And we saw that with the new controls that the Biden administration rolled out towards China’s access to advanced semiconductors. So for me, there’s no doubt the world’s heading in that direction.
“They have effectively shut off China’s access to what they call now, foundational technologies. In other words, the technologies you need to be a global leader in AI or whatever. So, this is really significant, and how Australia responds. You know, it’s a massive question.”
At the recent conference I attended in Canberra held by the Australia Chinese Business Council I got a sense of that. The excitement in the room from the business fraternity was palpable. Among the news that I was surprised to hear was that there are currently 30 Australian architectural firms working in China right now, mostly in green buildings and green cities.
In fact, one of these, Melbourne based Decibel is designing a building in China that is billed as one of the greenest on the planet. This case study will appear in the Extreme Green Buildings ebook we’re currently producing.
James noted that businesses are generally pretty good at assessing risk.
They’re often painted as naïve to be trading with China under the current political scenario but in his experience, business is usually quite good at assessing risk.
“In fact, they’re the ones who are putting their capital on the line. So, they’ve got every incentive to assess these risks seriously, and I think most of them do.”
So while the politics suggests we don’t have much to do with China right now, in trade it’s a different story. It’s just a bit under the radar.
On the Russian front, so to speak, the ructions there have also affected the sustainability industry here in Australia. Not the least with energy prices but also the sudden shock that we imported building components such as LVL timber and aluminum from Russia.
In Geoff’s view the current regime is unlikely to fall, so probably best not to hold out hope for that. Besides he says the technologies available now to keep dictators in place are hard to dislodge, but even if Putin could be replaced, what might follow is likely to be more chaotic.
The best outcome for Ukraine might be low level warfare for the next several decades and sanctions against Russia, he says.
Geoff notes that Russia has been described as, “a giant cross between Iran and North Korea and a global bad actor. That’s the good situation. The bad situation is that Putin feels like he’s going to lose… and he decides he has to escalate dramatically”.
Barring that horrid possibility, there might be some containment of the economic impact for now.
“We’ve already had most of the economic pain that we’re going to have as a result of Russia,” he says before adding that this war will hasten the energy transition.
“Europe is now in the process and Japan, for that matter, are in the process of getting themselves off Russian gas and Russian coal now.
“What it does to China, which is now going to have access to cheap, increasing access to cheap Russian gas, and other Russian stuff,” is a big open question.
There are so many questions.
Make sure you can ask them in person.
This session will be fascinating.
See the event website for more information and to buy tickets