24 August 2011 – Queensland’s economy would grow by 41 per cent with carbon pricing by 2019-20 says the State’s Treasurer, Andrew Fraser.
The state’s Treasury modelling, tabled in Parliament, showed that the impact on output across Queensland regions is expected to range between 0.1 per cent (higher) and -1.1 per cent (lower) over this period.
In fact Queensland Treasury’s modelling shows that, with and without a carbon price, the Queensland economy will grow strongly to 2019-20.
Employment is forecast to grow at 2.0 per cent per annum both with and without carbon pricing, with an extra 474,000 jobs expected over the period to 2019-20;
Real wages will rise by 1.5 per cent per annum to 2019-20 with carbon pricing, compared to 1.6 per cent per annum without carbon pricing.
Industry impacts are also expected to be relatively small to 2019-20 with coal industry output estimated to be 1.5 per cent lower by 2019-20, and 7.9 per cent lower by 2049-50.
The coal industry will still grow in absolute terms by 47 per cent by 2019-20, and 134 per cent by 2049-50.
But the carbon tax impact would increase over the next 40 years as the price rose, with gross state product expected to be 3.5 per cent lower by 2050.
It would also hit the budget bottom line by a total of $1.2 billion by 2015-16.
Commenting on the modelling the Australian Conservation Foundation’s climate change program manager Tony Mohr said: “This is consistent with modelling by the Garnaut Review and the Federal Treasury, which both showed a price on pollution would have virtually no impact on the economy.”
“People should take note of this credible economic modelling and should ignore the scaremongering of big industry lobby groups and other vested interests.
“Politicians should resist using the carbon price as a political football, because the need to shift away from our polluting economy is actually very serious and urgent.
“Queensland has some of the most amazing natural resources in the world, including the Great Barrier Reef, which faces devastation unless we tackle climate change,” he said.