19 September 2012 — Almost one third of the major players in the property industry, who took part in the Australian Property Institute Australian Property Directions Survey, are making provisions for the carbon tax.

Of those, most said their provisions related to managing building outgoings and installing energy efficient equipment.

The survey, conducted by the Australian Property Institute NSW Division, measures the sentiment and expectations of valuers, funds managers, property analysts and property financiers on a range of topics affecting property industry activity.

The survey has predicted growth, albeit slow, for property markets with commercial, industrial, retail and residential property in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne either now stalled or near the bottom of the property cycle but advancing slowly over the next two years.

“Currently commercial property in Sydney and Brisbane is seen as having commenced the upswing with Melbourne at the bottom of the property cycle,” the survey found.

“In one year’s time, commercial property in Sydney and Brisbane advances along the upswing while Melbourne remains at the bottom of the cycle. In two years’ time, commercial property in all three cities is on the upswing with Melbourne lagging Sydney and Brisbane.

“Retail property is currently seen as nearing the bottom of the cycle in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. In a year’s time, retail property in the three cities is seen as reaching the bottom of the cycle and then commencing the upswing in 2014, with Melbourne lagging Sydney and Brisbane.

“Industrial property in all three cities is currently seen as on the upswing. In one year’s time, industrial property in Sydney and Melbourne is seen as remaining at the same stage along the upswing while Brisbane is seen to catch up to the other two cities. In two years’ time, industrial property is predicted to advance along the upswing of the property cycle with Brisbane advancing the furthest.

“Residential property in Sydney is currently seen as commencing the property cycle upswing whereas Brisbane is at the bottom of the cycle and Melbourne is yet to reach the bottom of the cycle. In one year’s time, residential property is seen as having commenced the upswing

“In Sydney and Brisbane with Melbourne seen as reaching the bottom of the cycle. In two years’ time, respondents see residential property as moving further along the upswing with Melbourne lagging behind Sydney and Brisbane.”

The survey, which is carried out six monthly, found that leasing incentives were increasing for Sydney and Melbourne CBDs, decreasing for prime Brisbane property and remaining low for Perth prime and A Grade property.

Leasing incentives for Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart remain more varied and remain in the 10-29 per cent range.

“A larger majority of respondents than in April see incentives for prime commercial property in the Sydney CBDs being in the 20-29 per cent range,” the survey found.

“Smaller majorities of respondents see leasing incentive levels in the 20-29 per cent range for lower grade property in Sydney CBDs largely due to increases in the under 30 per cent incentive range.

“A smaller majority of respondents see prime property in the Melbourne CBD as having leasing incentive levels in the 10-19 per cent range than six months ago (and) there is a leaning to incentive levels of 20-29 per cent for prime property in the Melbourne CBD.

“A Grade and lower grade property in the Melbourne CBD and suburban CBDs are seen to increase to the 20-29 per cent lease incentive range.”

The survey found 48 per cent of respondents saw leasing incentives in the 20-29 per cent range for prime property in Brisbane, with 44 per cent seeing incentives in the 10-19 per cent range.

“The majority of respondents see Brisbane incentives in the 20-29 per cent range for A Grade and lower grade property (while) Perth is still seen as having the lowest level of leasing incentives compared to the other major cities with the majority of respondents seeing incentives in the 0-9 per cent range for Prime and A Grade property.

“Adelaide and Canberra lease incentives for commercial property are seen to be generally in the 10-19 per cent range but now with leanings to the 20-29 per cent range. Respondents still have more varied views for Hobart, with incentives seen as mainly in the 10-29 per cent range.”

Respondents to the API’s 29th Property Directions Survey included:

  • AMP Capital
  • ANZ Bank
  • Ashe Morgan
  • Bankwest
  • CBRE
  • Charter Hall
  • Colonial First State Global Asset Management
  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia
  • Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation
  • Cushman and Wakefield
  • DEXUS Property Group
  • DTZ Australia
  • Ernst & Young
  • GE Capital Real Estate
  • Goldman Sachs & Partners (Australia)
  • Goodman
  • Herron Todd White
  • Investa Property Group
  • Jones Lang LaSalle
  • Knight Frank Valuations
  • m3property
  • Macquarie Capital
  • Merrill Lynch
  • Mirvac Group
  • National Australia Bank
  • Preston Rowe Paterson
  • Propell National Valuers
  • Resolution Capital
  • Savills
  • Westpac